Trident

Something a bit serious now because I'm going to talk about the pending decision on Trident renewal. Let's start off by pointing out something that might seem incongruous, Owen Smith, one of the hopefuls in the struggle to wrest the Labour Party leadership from Jeremy Corbyn, has mysteriously come out in favour of renewal. Why should an erstwhile member of CND (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament) be performing such an apparent turnabout I wonder? Well the answer, or half of it, is pretty much transparent, Smith is a politician and I doubt very much his ostensible conviction in the principle of nuclear disarmament was in the least bit sincere. Quite why persons such as Smith have been getting away with this kind of mendacious behaviour for so long, is just one of those eternal mysteries, let's just put it down to the wilful gullibility of the party faithful.

So we have another faithless politician and while it's possible to reconcile Smith's inconsistency, with the insight we share into the character and moral turpitude of our politicians, it's not really a complete answer because it doesn't provide a motive. So what could the motive be I wonder, mmm... let me think, what would the cause of such a spectacular about face. What else do we know about Owen Smith, well he's hinted that despite European Convention's requisite on democratic governance, it would be legal to ignore the result of the recent referendum and that he might do so, were he in a position to cast such a decision. What I wonder, does Trident have to do with the UK's relationship with the EU and the prospect of leaving it?

In an effort to answer that, let's examine some relatively recent developments that didn't make it to the front pages. In 2012 the UK's treaty commitments to keep forces on German soil expired. In 2014 the British government announced the intention to withdraw its forces from Germany by 2018. In 2015, oh what happened then--well mysteriously for some completely unknown reason, a war kicked off in The Ukraine, throwing up a threat to European borders and surprise, surprise, renewed tension between the western powers and Russia. Mmm, I wonder if those are connected? Well let me give you a hint there, these sums are a little out of date but they serve to illuminate the subject. In 2011 the annual cost to the UK of the deployment on German soil was in excess of £2 billion annually. The estimated benefit to the German economy from household expenditure alone, was also in excess of £2 billion annually. Now factor in the cost to the German economy if they were to make up withdrawal of British troops with their own forces. And none of this expenditure, takes into consideration the cost of Trident. I'm thinking we're talking of a sum in the range of 10's of billions annually, imagine the German tax payer waking up to that. You think they're gonna be quite so happy to keep those BMW's on the roads of California and Massachusetts, when they're working for half the take home pay?

Ah you say, but Trident, it's for the defence of Britain, oh really you know what the flight time of Trident missile is? No you don't, nobody does it's a secret, I got my estimate by examining the flight time of Alan Shepard's Mercury flight and extending it with a 50% error. Following that method I get 15 minutes plus 7 1/2, which is 22 1/2 minutes, which by an astonishing coincidence is just 30 seconds longer than most published estimates. Now I don't know about you but if I were a Russian leader, I'd take that threat very seriously. And yet Britain maintains this nuclear armed fleet as a deterrent for what exactly? Oh right, invasion from the Russians because that's gonna happens some time soon isn't it? That march across Poland and the Baltic states, the relentless hordes pillaging through Germany, then trampling over France until they reach the coast. Finally, as they gather their forces for the final assault, their goal in sight, as they peer through their binoculars, focused beadily on the white cliffs of England. Yeah that sounds perfectly realistic.

Nope, what I think Trident is for, is to deter any incursion on mainland Europe. Originally to protect the German border from a quite credible threat, now extended to cover Poland and other territories, from a not quite so credible threat. So why exactly is the British tax payer, paying to protect Germany and Poland? Why indeed, why would a sovereign government give up enviable global trade relationships to narrow its trade relations with its recalcitrant continental neighbours, could the two facts be related in some way? And indeed they are, or least that's what I conclude because with Britain tied to Europe for trade, it means that Britain is invested in the defence of Europe in a very intimate fashion. Now does the fuss Brexit caused start to make sense, is it apparent why the most vitriolic reaction came from quarters, that you would expect had little invested in the outcome? Does it suggest a motive for Owen Smith's statement on Trident?

So what's gonna happen, are they going to renew Trident?  I think probably not if the Brexiteers have their way but I think also, there will be some equivocation, some kind of deal to obscure intent. After all, there are other players in this game and we've seen what happens abroad, in those nations that displease too frequently.